Lichtman’s 13 Keys To Subjective Reality

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Allan Lichtman, notorious smarmy coastal “elite,” and ivory tower libtard tool pretends that his “13 Keys” system is the most accurate prediction model ever. And with an 80% accuracy since 2000, and 84% retrospective accuracy when applied to elections dating back to the 1800s, you’d think this is pretty good. But you’d be wrong. Let’s talk about it.

From 1984 to 1996, his model predicted the electoral college. As it did in 2000. By Lichtman’s own words, he revised his model to predict the popular vote in 2000 when Gore lost “due to interference from the Supreme Court.” In other words, he was wrong, and changed his model retroactively to be correct, but only partly, because the Popular Vote does not win an individual the White House.

He again did this in 2016 but in reverse, to change his model to predict the winner of the electoral college.

What are his keys? Well, simply put, they are 13 true/false statements about the previous four years. If eight or more are true, the incumbent party wins the White House, if six or more are false, the challenging party wins. But what are the individual keys? They are:

• 1) Party Mandate: The WH incumbent party gained seats in the preceding Midterm.
• 2) No Primary Contest: The incumbent party had no serious contest in its nomination process.
• 3) Incumbent Seeking Reelection: Self explanatory.
• 4) No Third Party: There is no serious independent or third party challenge.
• 5) Strong Short Term Economy: The economy is not in recession during the campaign.
• 6) Strong Long Term Economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
• 7) Major Policy Change: Incumbent effects major change in public policy.
• 8) No Social Unrest: There has been sustained social unrest during the current term.
• 9) No Scandal: There is no major scandal during the current term.
• 10) No Foreign or Military Failure: The incumbent has suffered no major failures.
• 11) Foreign or Military Success: The incumbent has achieved major foreign or military success.
• 12) Charismatic Incumbent: The incumbent is charismatic or national hero.
• 13) Uncharismatic Challenger: The challenger is not charismatic or national hero.

In his most recent prediction, Lichtman gives Kamala Harris 8 ‘true’ keys, and Trump 3 ‘false’ keys, predicting a Kamala Harris win. But problems arise when you look closer at his prediction.

To start: Key Five, Strong Short Term Economy, True?

Perhaps if you sit in an ivory tower you would think the economy is fantastic, after all, that’s what the White House has said for the last 4 years. But just because the word recession hasn’t been used, doesn’t mean it’s not happening. 75% of Americans are paycheck to paycheck. Is that a strong short term economy? Likely not, most real people would say. This key should be rated false.

Key Seven, Major Policy Change, True?

Can anyone here realistically, and honestly say that the Biden administration has affected major policy change? As far as I can tell, the only meaningful policy change this country has seen is the frequency Biden changes his Depends. So turn that key false.

Key Nine, No Scandal, True?

Does this need to be explained? Let’s go through scandals. We have proof that Biden’s administration pressured Ukraine to reject peace deals to fund the war effort. We know that Hunter Biden’s laptop story was true, despite full throated assurances it was fake. We have Kamala Harris’ failed time as border czar. And the big whopper that really drives my point home, the fact that Joe Biden’s mental decline was hidden from the American people for his entire term until that June debate. Unless you want to be like Lichtman and ignore the present reality. This key is false.

These three moderately subjective keys turning false gives Trump 6, which means Lichtman’s model should predict a Trump victory on Tuesday.

But I’m not done.

He leaves keys ten and eleven blank, as the incumbent is not running. This is a face saving move by Lichtman who won’t admit that Kamala Harris is part of the incumbent administration and therefore does bear some responsibility for the successes and failures of Joe Biden. But I digress.

Key Ten, No Major Foreign or Military Failures?

This shouldn’t be shocking. Afghanistan withdrawal, 4 armed conflicts and counting. All of them unassuaged by the incumbent administration. This key turns false.

Key Eleven, Major Successes?

If the goal is world chaos then sure, make it true. If you want to be a weasel leave it blank. If you want to engage in reality, it’s false.

And finally, Key Thirteen, Uncharismatic Opponent, True?

Here’s another totally subjective key. Love him or hate him, Trump is highly charismatic. This key is false.

So all told, Lichtman’s model should predict: 4 True, 9 False and thus a Trump return to the White House. But he’ll never admit that. What he will do is cry about how everyone is so mean to him because of his prediction, and then do – once again – retroactive smarmy weasel word punditry to explain how he actually was right.

I sincerely hope this charlatan is laughed out of the field, and disgraced forever.